World Bank imagines dark Palestinian days

[Parisienne]

World Bank imagines dark Palestinian days By Steven Erlanger The New York Times THURSDAY, MARCH 16, 2006 JERUSALEM If Israel continues to withhold revenues from a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority and the major donor countries reduce their budget support and development aid, the authority will be thrown into a deep depression, with a decline in personal incomes of 30 percent this year alone, according to a World Bank study sent to donors Wednesday night. In these circumstances, the study says, the Palestinian economy will shrink by 27 percent in 2006, a one-year contraction that compares to the Great Depression in the United States. Unemployment will nearly double to 39.6 percent, and the percentage of those below the poverty level will increase by 50 percent, to as much as 67 percent of the population. The estimates were asked for by donor countries to help guide their policies after the victory of the radical Islamic group Hamas in the legislative elections on Jan. 25. The estimates give a stark indication of the deep economic crisis that will be faced by Palestinians unless there are windfalls of aid from Iran and other Muslim countries. The figures also help illustrate the policy dilemma of the United States and the European Union, which do not want to provide money to Hamas but also do not want to punish Palestinians for a democratic vote. Hamas's victory has worsened an already difficult financial situation for the Palestinian Authority, which employs more than 140,000 people, including armed security personnel. But the authority also runs 76 percent of the schools and 62 percent of the health facilities, while directly employing 64 percent of education personnel. Hamas is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and Israel, and legal prohibitions on providing aid to such organizations mean that there are likely to be significant cuts in budget support and developmental aid, even if humanitarian aid continues or increases. The United States, the EU, Russia and the United Nations - known as the Quartet - have demanded that any new government recognize Israel, renounce violence and accept previous Israeli- Palestinian agreements or face isolation and aid reductions. Hamas has not complied. The main donors, which include the Quartet as well as other countries like Saudi Arabia, asked the World Bank to update its estimates of what would happen to the Palestinian economy under a Hamas-led government, as a guide to policy. The bank looked at four different scenarios, depending on how different factors respond. But Israel's policy - already withholding some $55 million a month in tax and customs receipts it collects for the Palestinian Authority and restricting trade and access to Israel by Palestinian workers - is the largest factor in the analysis. The next largest factor is the expected cut in the provision of budget support - cash - to a Hamas-run authority. The main cash donors are Saudi Arabia and the European Union, and while the bank assumes that Muslim donations will continue unchanged, Western cash support is expected to drop by at least $50 million a year. The first scenario assumes that nothing much will change; the second that Israel alone continues to hold back revenues and further reduce border trade and access to Palestinian laborers; the third assumes that only foreign aid is reduced; and the fourth, which the authors of the report consider the most realistic, that Israel continues its restrictions and that foreign aid is also reduced. But even under the least likely scenario, of no abrupt change and money flowing from Israel, the report says, "Palestinian economic prospects are not good." The Palestinian Authority, even before Hamas takes over, is already running a deficit of about $70 million a month, which reaches about $125 million a month now that Israel is withholding funds. The authority has no idea how it will pay March salaries. If donor aid is unchanged, but Israel continues its restrictions, gross domestic product per capita will fall nearly 22 percent, the study says, comparable to the first part of the intifada, and unemployment will jump to 35.5 percent as poverty levels reach 62 percent. If Israel just withholds Palestinian revenues alone, the total budget resources available to the Palestinian Authority this year would be only $700 million to $750 million, compared with a draft 2006 budget of $1.9 billion, which includes a salary bill alone of $1.2 billion. The most likely scenario is a combination of Israeli and donor restrictions. The consequences are dire even this year, with unemployment rising from the current 23.4 percent to 39.6 percent and those living in poverty rising from 44 percent to 67 percent. Real gross domestic product per capita, a good measure of the size of the economy, will fall 49.4 percent compared with the level in 1999, before the second intifada began, when the Palestinian Authority ran a small budget surplus. The bank cannot know exactly how much aid will be reduced by governments if Hamas takes over and does not meet the Quartet's requirements. But in 2005, it says, donors contributed about $1.3 billion, which provided about 22 percent of gross disposable income for the population. Of that $1.3 billion, about $350 million, or 27 percent, was budget support, or cash; about $500 million, 38 percent, was humanitarian or emergency aid, and about $450 million, 35 percent, was development aid. Zie bron voor vervolg van de ellenlange bedroevende artikel. Ik denk dat de Dark Days en in mijn optiek wel decades voor wel meerdere landen opgaan. Je kan wel raden wat de gevolgen zullen zijn :jammer:

[sjanghai]

World Bank imagines dark Palestinian days By Steven Erlanger The New York Times THURSDAY, MARCH 16, 2006 JERUSALEM If Israel continues to withhold revenues from a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority and the major donor countries reduce their budget support and development aid, the authority will be thrown into a deep depression, with a decline in personal incomes of 30 percent this year alone, according to a World Bank study sent to donors Wednesday night. In these circumstances, the study says, the Palestinian economy will shrink by 27 percent in 2006, a one-year contraction that compares to the Great Depression in the United States. Unemployment will nearly double to 39.6 percent, and the percentage of those below the poverty level will increase by 50 percent, to as much as 67 percent of the population. The estimates were asked for by donor countries to help guide their policies after the victory of the radical Islamic group Hamas in the legislative elections on Jan. 25. The estimates give a stark indication of the deep economic crisis that will be faced by Palestinians unless there are windfalls of aid from Iran and other Muslim countries. The figures also help illustrate the policy dilemma of the United States and the European Union, which do not want to provide money to Hamas but also do not want to punish Palestinians for a democratic vote. Hamas's victory has worsened an already difficult financial situation for the Palestinian Authority, which employs more than 140,000 people, including armed security personnel. But the authority also runs 76 percent of the schools and 62 percent of the health facilities, while directly employing 64 percent of education personnel. Hamas is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and Israel, and legal prohibitions on providing aid to such organizations mean that there are likely to be significant cuts in budget support and developmental aid, even if humanitarian aid continues or increases. The United States, the EU, Russia and the United Nations - known as the Quartet - have demanded that any new government recognize Israel, renounce violence and accept previous Israeli- Palestinian agreements or face isolation and aid reductions. Hamas has not complied. The main donors, which include the Quartet as well as other countries like Saudi Arabia, asked the World Bank to update its estimates of what would happen to the Palestinian economy under a Hamas-led government, as a guide to policy. The bank looked at four different scenarios, depending on how different factors respond. But Israel's policy - already withholding some $55 million a month in tax and customs receipts it collects for the Palestinian Authority and restricting trade and access to Israel by Palestinian workers - is the largest factor in the analysis. The next largest factor is the expected cut in the provision of budget support - cash - to a Hamas-run authority. The main cash donors are Saudi Arabia and the European Union, and while the bank assumes that Muslim donations will continue unchanged, Western cash support is expected to drop by at least $50 million a year. The first scenario assumes that nothing much will change; the second that Israel alone continues to hold back revenues and further reduce border trade and access to Palestinian laborers; the third assumes that only foreign aid is reduced; and the fourth, which the authors of the report consider the most realistic, that Israel continues its restrictions and that foreign aid is also reduced. But even under the least likely scenario, of no abrupt change and money flowing from Israel, the report says, "Palestinian economic prospects are not good." The Palestinian Authority, even before Hamas takes over, is already running a deficit of about $70 million a month, which reaches about $125 million a month now that Israel is withholding funds. The authority has no idea how it will pay March salaries. If donor aid is unchanged, but Israel continues its restrictions, gross domestic product per capita will fall nearly 22 percent, the study says, comparable to the first part of the intifada, and unemployment will jump to 35.5 percent as poverty levels reach 62 percent. If Israel just withholds Palestinian revenues alone, the total budget resources available to the Palestinian Authority this year would be only $700 million to $750 million, compared with a draft 2006 budget of $1.9 billion, which includes a salary bill alone of $1.2 billion. The most likely scenario is a combination of Israeli and donor restrictions. The consequences are dire even this year, with unemployment rising from the current 23.4 percent to 39.6 percent and those living in poverty rising from 44 percent to 67 percent. Real gross domestic product per capita, a good measure of the size of the economy, will fall 49.4 percent compared with the level in 1999, before the second intifada began, when the Palestinian Authority ran a small budget surplus. The bank cannot know exactly how much aid will be reduced by governments if Hamas takes over and does not meet the Quartet's requirements. But in 2005, it says, donors contributed about $1.3 billion, which provided about 22 percent of gross disposable income for the population. Of that $1.3 billion, about $350 million, or 27 percent, was budget support, or cash; about $500 million, 38 percent, was humanitarian or emergency aid, and about $450 million, 35 percent, was development aid. Zie bron voor vervolg van de ellenlange bedroevende artikel. Ik denk dat de Dark Days en in mijn optiek wel decades voor wel meerdere landen opgaan. Je kan wel raden wat de gevolgen zullen zijn :jammer:Als je de omverwerping van een VN-erkende staat in je handvest hebt staan, dan moet je niet raar opkijken dat deze staten niet van plan zijn om je financieel te steunen, laat staan de staat die je wil vernietigen.

[Juwayriyah]

World Bank imagines dark Palestinian days By Steven Erlanger The New York Times THURSDAY, MARCH 16, 2006 JERUSALEM If Israel continues to withhold revenues from a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority and the major donor countries reduce their budget support and development aid, the authority will be thrown into a deep depression, with a decline in personal incomes of 30 percent this year alone, according to a World Bank study sent to donors Wednesday night. In these circumstances, the study says, the Palestinian economy will shrink by 27 percent in 2006, a one-year contraction that compares to the Great Depression in the United States. Unemployment will nearly double to 39.6 percent, and the percentage of those below the poverty level will increase by 50 percent, to as much as 67 percent of the population. The estimates were asked for by donor countries to help guide their policies after the victory of the radical Islamic group Hamas in the legislative elections on Jan. 25. The estimates give a stark indication of the deep economic crisis that will be faced by Palestinians unless there are windfalls of aid from Iran and other Muslim countries. The figures also help illustrate the policy dilemma of the United States and the European Union, which do not want to provide money to Hamas but also do not want to punish Palestinians for a democratic vote. Hamas's victory has worsened an already difficult financial situation for the Palestinian Authority, which employs more than 140,000 people, including armed security personnel. But the authority also runs 76 percent of the schools and 62 percent of the health facilities, while directly employing 64 percent of education personnel. Hamas is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and Israel, and legal prohibitions on providing aid to such organizations mean that there are likely to be significant cuts in budget support and developmental aid, even if humanitarian aid continues or increases. The United States, the EU, Russia and the United Nations - known as the Quartet - have demanded that any new government recognize Israel, renounce violence and accept previous Israeli- Palestinian agreements or face isolation and aid reductions. Hamas has not complied. The main donors, which include the Quartet as well as other countries like Saudi Arabia, asked the World Bank to update its estimates of what would happen to the Palestinian economy under a Hamas-led government, as a guide to policy. The bank looked at four different scenarios, depending on how different factors respond. But Israel's policy - already withholding some $55 million a month in tax and customs receipts it collects for the Palestinian Authority and restricting trade and access to Israel by Palestinian workers - is the largest factor in the analysis. The next largest factor is the expected cut in the provision of budget support - cash - to a Hamas-run authority. The main cash donors are Saudi Arabia and the European Union, and while the bank assumes that Muslim donations will continue unchanged, Western cash support is expected to drop by at least $50 million a year. The first scenario assumes that nothing much will change; the second that Israel alone continues to hold back revenues and further reduce border trade and access to Palestinian laborers; the third assumes that only foreign aid is reduced; and the fourth, which the authors of the report consider the most realistic, that Israel continues its restrictions and that foreign aid is also reduced. But even under the least likely scenario, of no abrupt change and money flowing from Israel, the report says, "Palestinian economic prospects are not good." The Palestinian Authority, even before Hamas takes over, is already running a deficit of about $70 million a month, which reaches about $125 million a month now that Israel is withholding funds. The authority has no idea how it will pay March salaries. If donor aid is unchanged, but Israel continues its restrictions, gross domestic product per capita will fall nearly 22 percent, the study says, comparable to the first part of the intifada, and unemployment will jump to 35.5 percent as poverty levels reach 62 percent. If Israel just withholds Palestinian revenues alone, the total budget resources available to the Palestinian Authority this year would be only $700 million to $750 million, compared with a draft 2006 budget of $1.9 billion, which includes a salary bill alone of $1.2 billion. The most likely scenario is a combination of Israeli and donor restrictions. The consequences are dire even this year, with unemployment rising from the current 23.4 percent to 39.6 percent and those living in poverty rising from 44 percent to 67 percent. Real gross domestic product per capita, a good measure of the size of the economy, will fall 49.4 percent compared with the level in 1999, before the second intifada began, when the Palestinian Authority ran a small budget surplus. The bank cannot know exactly how much aid will be reduced by governments if Hamas takes over and does not meet the Quartet's requirements. But in 2005, it says, donors contributed about $1.3 billion, which provided about 22 percent of gross disposable income for the population. Of that $1.3 billion, about $350 million, or 27 percent, was budget support, or cash; about $500 million, 38 percent, was humanitarian or emergency aid, and about $450 million, 35 percent, was development aid. Zie bron voor vervolg van de ellenlange bedroevende artikel. Ik denk dat de Dark Days en in mijn optiek wel decades voor wel meerdere landen opgaan. Je kan wel raden wat de gevolgen zullen zijn :jammer: Zo lang er Moslims bestaan, sinds het begin der tijden, wordt van alle kanten geprobeerd om hen te vernietigen. Je hebt de reacties gelezen. Het bestaan van de Palestijnen wordt hier gewoon glashard ontkend. We weten wat ons te doen staat. We moeten het heft in eigen hand gaan nemen en zelf geld sturen naar Palestina, elke maand, keer op keer. De Palestijnen hebben die fooien van het westen niet nodig, al is het westen wel VERPLICHT om hen dat geld terug te geven omdat het westen hen heeft beroofd van hun vrijheid, hun waardigheid en hun LAND. Je kunt op alle mogelijke manieren Islamitische liefdadigheidsorganisaties steunen in de bezette Palestijnse gebieden. Er zijn vele organisaties actief. Als hun geld van ze wordt gejat, dan is het altijd nog mogelijk dat dat geld op andere manieren naar hen terug komt. Let wel, elke cent die je spendeert aan mensen in de Palestina is een cent die niet in het westen wordt uitgegeven. Dat zijn dus inkomsten die zij hier mislopen, al7amdulillah. Alle kleine beetjes helpen!!!